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Free beta access to supported probability models, trader research and Bet Scope.

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Get free beta access to supported probability models, trader research and Bet Scope. No paid subscription is required during this beta.

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MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Market Explorer

Live prediction-market researchExplore market probabilities, liquidity, 24-hour volume, order-book depth and price history across sports, politics, crypto, business and more.Explore the market index Sports prediction markets Tennis markets Football markets Politics markets Crypto markets Trading and finance markets

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TRADER INTELLIGENCE

Users

Rank public traders · inspect trades · review token holdings.

Profiles on canvas0 profiles

Query stateDiscovery mode

Data modePublic profile dossier

Ordered trader ledger

Search for a username to inspect a trader, or choose a ranking metric and load the top 25 / 50 / 100.

BET SCOPE

Bet Scope

Recent trades · open positions · model–market gap ranking against current Polymarket quotes.

Active lensRecent trades

Feed rows0 loaded

DataPublic Polymarket activity

Ordered signal ledger

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MARKET WORKBENCH / EXECUTION + MODEL

Market details

Select a market from the browser.

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Markets & price action

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Price history

Load a market to chart its price history.

Aestus Football Model

Independent football research

Member research

FOOTBALL MODEL ACCESS UNLOCK THE MODEL FOR EVERY MATCH During the controlled beta, signed-in members can view Core forecast and Supplementary analysis football research for every fixture. Paywall rights will be separated when subscriptions launch.

Structure

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Select a market to load its live order book and public transaction tape.

Recent media

News and video relevant to this market

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Load an event to scan related media.

Assumptions

Target principal / leg $

Min robust edge ¢

Forecast uncertainty at 50% (pts)

Days to resolution

Advanced costs & buffers (sensible defaults)

Fallback taker fee rate %

Latency/slippage buffer ¢/sh

Capital cost APR %

Safety margin ¢/sh

Model blend weight 0–1

Maker adverse-selection buffer ¢

Est. half-spread ¢ (no book)

Arbitrage basket shares / leg

Max loss in any state %

Joint distribution TV stress (pts)

Max live-book age sec

Max price impact ¢

Max arb leg skew ms

Max capital / bet %

Max portfolio cash %

Rows without your estimate still show market-consensus diagnostics, but consensus-only rows are never promoted into the portfolio. Missing books may show an estimated reference fill marked *, but estimates are never actionable. Forecast uncertainty and joint-distribution stress are deliberately separate: row edge uses the horizon-aware forecast band, while portfolio sizing moves probability mass across joint states inside the configured TV radius.

Holder research

ROI from available position history of sampled holders. History may be capped; lifetime coverage is not verified. Research only; never used for probability estimates, model-edge signals or portfolio sizing.

Research settings

Holder sample per side

ROI clamp ± %

Min position-rated wallets / side

Load an event first.

⚠ Descriptive only — average ROI is not calibration. Coverage reports how many returned holders had usable performance data; use it to investigate a market, never to justify a trade by itself.

Bet sizing

Tick fresh, fully executable MODEL-EDGE rows. Final sizes are re-quoted against the live ask ladder and optimized jointly.

Bankroll for this desk

$

Fraction of robust Kelly portfolio

Per-bet and total-cash caps come from Advanced costs & buffers above; there is one source of truth for risk limits.

The allocator maximizes robust expected log wealth over the full modeled state space, re-quotes every proposed principal against displayed asks, applies fees/slippage/lockup, and enforces per-bet, total-cash, and worst-state loss caps. Fractional Kelly scales the optimized portfolio and re-evaluates it at the smaller live-book sizes.

Forecast journal

Independent probability edits are journaled locally in this browser.

Each independent forecast revision stores its timestamp, market/state identity, provenance, fair-value components when available, market benchmark, bid/ask, horizon and a resolution-rules fingerprint. When you later load the same market after resolution, Aestus Value Lab scores resolved entries with Brier score and log loss. Consensus seeds and holder research are never journaled as independent forecasts.